I have been playing poker for over 20 years now. I have also been an advantaged blackjack player almost as long. When I say advantaged I mean that I am a card counter. I normally play double deck games where the dealer hits soft 17 and penetration is around 80-90%. I am not a player that will continue to play if the deck gets to negative. I will either get up from the table and take a walk or just sit out until the shuffle if others are at the table.
Over the years I have come to notice patterns. Some of which may be more than just coincidence. For example I have noticed that if I run bad in poker, I will normally do well in blackjack. Another thing I have found is when a deck keeps running negative, cutting near the bottom of the deck will turn the count in my favor faster. This seems to be tied more to how the decks get shuffled. So this may be more shuffle tracking. I'm not sure because I have never learned anything about shuffle tracking.
I used to question the whole concept of card counting. Mainly because I would find myself with very rich decks in which I would loose every big bet I made. Then I would have other days in which the deck would always stay negative, yet I would have long runs of winning hands. I then started to very how many hands I was playing when the deck was killing me. It seems that in a lot of cases that by adding an additional hand I would start winning.
Has anyone else who plays blackjack seen similar patterns? Has anyone seen any other patterns that I have not mentioned? Please leave a comment on what you have seen. Thanks for your comments.
I'm doing same as you for couple of years. In two deck game, or more, there are several patterns. I can say 80% to 90% of shoe was bad or just even to players. Especially 30% to 50% of shoe was bad. Which means count hardly go over +3 and dealer keep making number and win 60% to 90% over the player. In this kind of table, you should leave ASAP. In other word, around 10% to 20% of shoe is favorable to players. In this case, even though count doesn't go over +3 or more, dealer burst frequently and player win more than 60%. In this kind of patterns, I think we should keep same numbers of players or hands, and cut point. Even though the count goes high, we lose more than 60% a lot of times, which makes our whole day's play miserable. In this case, I think there are several reasons. At first, cards were sort favorable to dealer, such as dealer keep having 2 tens or high numbers and players has 10 and low cards such as 2,3,4,5,6. So, in this case we should increase our bet rather less. And secondly, even though count goes high, players don't get right cards because most of high cards remains under the cut card. And finally, we should think of 7,8,9 which we don't count. Especially, if there are lot's of 7,8 with 10 or ace,we can get two 7 or two 8 or 7,8. And finally, even though count goes high, if there are lot of aces, this is not that good. Which means, I prefer 10 than ace. To have black jack is quite difficult and dealer doesn't burst easily when there are lot's of ace. As for myself, I count Hi-Lo and ace and 7,9. Finally, in my opinion, we should determine the table is bad or good or normal, and we should leave the bad table ASAP. But you should know one more thing. Even though good shoe which means you win more than 60% and count goes high, it could be changed later because of change of hands or patterns of card. If bad shoe happen one or two times, you should leave this table too. I know some bad shoe could be changed good shoe. But, it's better for us to look for another table because there is more chance for us than waisting money and time in bad table.
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